What to Expect from the Mortgage Industry in 2024: A Q&A with ICE’s Andy Walden

If you are interested in the mortgage market and its future trends, you might want to hear from an expert who has a deep understanding of the industry and its dynamics. That’s why we invited Andy Walden, vice president of enterprise research at ICE Mortgage Technology, to share his insights and predictions for 2024.

Andy Walden has over 15 years of experience in the mortgage industry, specializing in data analytics, market research, and forecasting. He leads the research team at ICE Mortgage Technology, which provides innovative solutions and insights to lenders, servicers, investors, and regulators. He is also a frequent speaker and commentator on the housing and mortgage markets, appearing on CNBC, Bloomberg, and other media outlets.

In this Q&A, we asked Andy about the current state of the mortgage industry, the impact of the Fed’s monetary policy, the outlook for home sales and prices, the role of technology and data, and the challenges and opportunities for the industry in 2024. Here is what he had to say:

Q: How would you describe the mortgage industry in 2023? What were the main drivers and challenges?

A: The mortgage industry in 2023 was characterized by high interest rates, low origination volume, and tight profit margins. The main driver of these conditions was the Fed’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle, which started in 2022 and continued until mid-2023, in response to the rising inflation pressures and overheating economy. The Fed raised the benchmark federal funds rate 11 times, from 2.5% to 5.5%, pushing the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to a 22-year high of 7.79% in October 2023.

The high interest rates had a negative impact on both the demand and supply sides of the housing market. On the demand side, the high rates reduced the affordability and purchasing power of potential homebuyers, especially first-time buyers and low-income households. On the supply side, the high rates discouraged homeowners from selling their homes or refinancing their mortgages, resulting in a low inventory of existing homes and a decline in refinance activity.

The low origination volume and the high interest rates also squeezed the profit margins of mortgage lenders, who faced increased competition and rising costs. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the average production profit per loan fell to $1,082 in the third quarter of 2023, down from $2,152 in the same quarter of 2022. The MBA also estimated that the total mortgage origination volume dropped to $1.64 trillion in 2023, down from $2.05 trillion in 2022.

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Q: What are your expectations for the mortgage industry in 2024? How will the Fed’s monetary policy affect the industry?

A: We expect the mortgage industry to improve in 2024, as interest rates decline and origination volume increases. The main reason for this improvement is the Fed’s change in monetary policy, which signals the end of the rate-hiking cycle and the possibility of rate cuts in the second half of 2024. The Fed’s decision to pause the rate hikes was based on the signs of easing inflation pressures and slowing economic growth, as well as the increased risks from the global trade tensions and the political uncertainty.

The Fed’s monetary policy will have a positive impact on both the demand and supply sides of the housing market. On the demand side, the lower interest rates will increase the affordability and purchasing power of potential homebuyers, especially first-time buyers and low-income households. On the supply side, the lower interest rates will encourage homeowners to sell their homes or refinance their mortgages, resulting in a higher inventory of existing homes and a higher refinance activity.

The higher origination volume and the lower interest rates will also boost the profit margins of mortgage lenders, who will benefit from increased demand and lower costs. According to the MBA, the average production profit per loan will rise to $1,392 in the fourth quarter of 2024, up from $1,082 in the third quarter of 2023. The MBA also projects that the total mortgage origination volume will increase to $1.95 trillion in 2024, up from $1.64 trillion in 2023.

Q: How do you see the home sales and prices evolving in 2024? What are the main factors influencing them?

A: We see the home sales and prices growing moderately in 2024, as the lower interest rates stimulate the demand and the higher inventory balances the supply. The main factors influencing the home sales and prices are the demographic trends, the economic conditions, and the housing affordability.

The demographic trends are favorable for the home sales and prices, as the large millennial generation enters its prime homebuying age and drives the demand for homeownership. According to the Census Bureau, the number of households headed by people aged 25 to 34 will increase by 1.2 million in 2024, reaching 24.7 million. This cohort represents the largest share of first-time homebuyers, who accounted for 33% of all homebuyers in 2023, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

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The economic conditions are also supportive for the home sales and prices, as the GDP growth remains positive and the unemployment rate remains low, despite the expected slowdown in the first half of 2024. According to the MBA, the GDP growth will average 2.4% in 2024, down from 2.9% in 2023, while the unemployment rate will average 4.8%, up from 4.4% in 2023. These indicators suggest that the income and confidence of consumers will remain high, enabling them to purchase homes.

The housing affordability is the main challenge for the home sales and prices, as the high home prices and the high interest rates reduce the affordability and accessibility of homeownership for many buyers. According to the NAR, the median existing-home price rose by 6.5% in 2023, reaching $323,900 in November. The NAR also reported that the housing affordability index, which measures the ability of a typical family to buy a median-priced home, fell by 18.6% in 2023, reaching 118.6 in November, the lowest level since 2008. This means that a typical family had only 118.6% of the income required to qualify for a conventional loan covering 80% of a median-priced home.

Image by: https://www.realestate.com

Q: How do you see the role of technology and data in the mortgage industry in 2024? What are the main trends and innovations?

A: We see the role of technology and data in the mortgage industry as essential and transformative in 2024. Technology and data are the main drivers of efficiency, accuracy, and customer satisfaction in the mortgage process, from origination to servicing to secondary market. The main trends and innovations in this area are the digitalization, automation, and integration of the mortgage process.

The digitalization of the mortgage process refers to the use of online platforms, mobile applications, and cloud-based systems to enable borrowers, lenders, and other parties to access, share, and store information and documents electronically. This reduces the need for paper, fax, and mail, and speeds up the communication and verification processes. According to the ICE Mortgage Technology Origination Insight Report, the share of loans closed using digital mortgage solutions increased from 38% in 2022 to 58% in 2023.

The automation of the mortgage process refers to the use of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and natural language processing to perform tasks that traditionally required human intervention, such as underwriting, appraisal, and compliance. This reduces the errors, costs, and risks associated with manual processes, and improves the quality and consistency of the outcomes. According to the ICE Mortgage Technology Lender Sentiment Survey, 71% of lenders reported using or planning to use AI/ML in their mortgage operations in 2023, up from 51% in 2022.

The integration of the mortgage process refers to the use of application programming interfaces (APIs), blockchain, and smart contracts to connect and synchronize the data and transactions among different parties and platforms involved in the mortgage lifecycle, such as borrowers, lenders, servicers, investors, and regulators. This reduces the friction, duplication, and delays associated with disparate and siloed systems, and enhances the transparency and security of the data and transactions. According to the ICE Mortgage Technology Lender Sentiment Survey, 65% of lenders reported using or planning to use blockchain in their mortgage operations in 2023, up from 45% in 2022.

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Q: What are the main challenges and opportunities for the mortgage industry in 2024? How can the industry overcome the challenges and seize the opportunities?

A: The main challenges for the mortgage industry in 2024 are the regulatory uncertainty, the cyber risk, and the talent gap. The main opportunities for the industry are the product innovation, the customer experience, and the social impact.

The regulatory uncertainty refers to the potential changes in the rules and standards governing the mortgage industry, as a result of the new administration and the new Congress. These changes could affect the lending criteria, the disclosure requirements, the fair lending practices, and the oversight and enforcement mechanisms. The industry can overcome this challenge by staying informed, engaged, and compliant with the evolving regulatory environment, and by advocating for the interests and needs of the industry and its customers.

The cyber risk refers to the potential threats and attacks on the data and systems of the mortgage industry, as a result of the increased use and reliance on technology and data. These threats and attacks could compromise the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of the data and systems, and cause financial, reputational, and legal damages. The industry can overcome this challenge by implementing robust and proactive cybersecurity measures, such as encryption, authentication, backup, and recovery, and by educating and training the staff and customers on the best practices and protocols.

The talent gap refers to the difficulty of attracting, retaining, and developing the human capital needed for the mortgage industry, as a result of the changing demographics, expectations, and skills of the workforce. The industry faces a shortage of qualified and experienced professionals, especially in the areas of technology, data, and analytics, as well as a challenge of engaging and motivating the existing and new employees, especially the millennials and the Gen Z, who value flexibility, diversity, and purpose. The industry can overcome this challenge by investing in the recruitment, training, and development of the talent, by offering competitive compensation and benefits, and by creating a culture of innovation, collaboration, and inclusion.

The product innovation refers to the opportunity of creating and offering new and improved products and services that meet the evolving needs and preferences of the customers, especially the underserved and emerging segments, such as the minorities, the immigrants, the self-employed, and the gig workers. The industry can seize this opportunity by leveraging technology and data to design and deliver customized and flexible solutions, such as alternative credit scoring, non-QM loans, and digital mortgages, and by partnering with fintechs, nonprofits, and community organizations to reach and serve these segments.

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The customer experience refers to the opportunity of enhancing and differentiating the customer journey and relationship throughout the mortgage process, from origination to servicing to secondary market. The industry can seize this opportunity by using technology and data to provide faster, easier, and more transparent processes, such as online applications, automated underwriting, and e-closings, and by offering personalized, proactive, and omnichannel communication and support, such as chatbots, mobile alerts, and video calls.

The social impact refers to the opportunity of contributing to the social and environmental causes and goals that matter to the customers, the employees, and the society, such as financial inclusion, homeownership education, affordable housing, and green lending. The industry can seize this opportunity by aligning its vision, mission, and values with these causes and goals, by measuring and reporting its impact and performance, and by engaging and collaborating with its stakeholders and partners, such as regulators, investors, and nonprofits.

Conclusion

The mortgage industry is facing a dynamic and challenging environment in 2024, as it adapts to the changes in the interest rates, the housing market, the technology, and the regulation. However, the industry also has many opportunities to grow and thrive, as it innovates and improves its products, services, and processes, and as it enhances and differentiates its customer experience and social impact. The industry can leverage its expertise, experience, and resources, as well as the insights and predictions from experts like Andy Walden, to overcome the challenges and seize the opportunities, and to create value and satisfaction for its customers and stakeholders.