Finance

Navigating the Risky Terrain of the Fed’s Inflation Fight

Published

1 year ago

May 3, 2023

Harry Williams

As the global economy continues to recover from the impact of the pandemic, one key player is taking center stage in the fight against inflation – The Federal Reserve. With its mandate to maintain price stability and full employment, the Fed has been navigating a tricky terrain as it seeks to achieve its inflation target amidst changing economic conditions. In this blog post, we’ll explore what’s at stake for consumers and businesses alike as we examine both sides of this high-stakes equation. So buckle up and get ready to dive into the complex world of monetary policy!

The Fed’s inflation target

The Federal Reserve has a specific mandate to achieve “maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.” This is what guides the Fed’s decision-making when it comes to setting its inflation target.

For many years, the Fed aimed for an inflation rate of around 2%. The goal was to keep prices stable while also allowing for some economic growth. However, in recent years there has been concern that inflation has remained too low.

Low inflation might sound like a good thing on the surface – after all, who doesn’t want lower prices? But if prices remain consistently low over a long period of time it can lead to deflation. Deflation causes consumers and businesses to delay purchases because they know that goods will be cheaper in the future. This slowdown in spending can create a vicious cycle that leads to economic contraction and job loss.

To prevent this from happening, the Fed decided in August 2020 to switch from targeting an average rate of inflation (meaning they would allow periods where inflation is below their target) to targeting a fixed level of 2% average annual increases.

The problem with low inflation

Low inflation might sound like a good thing, but it actually poses several problems for the economy. When inflation is too low (or deflation occurs), consumers and businesses tend to put off purchases in anticipation of even lower prices in the future. This reduces demand for goods and services, leading to slower economic growth.

Low inflation also makes it harder for central banks like the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy during times of recession. The Fed typically lowers interest rates to encourage borrowing and spending when the economy slows down, but if rates are already at historically low levels due to persistently low inflation, there may not be much room left to maneuver.

Moreover, low inflation can lead to wage stagnation as employers see less pressure to raise pay in response to rising prices. This can exacerbate income inequality and make it more difficult for workers at all income levels.

While very high inflation is clearly problematic, policymakers must strike a balance between keeping prices stable and avoiding excessively low levels of price growth that could harm economic activity over time.

What the Fed is doing about it

The Fed has implemented several measures to combat low inflation and achieve its target of 2% inflation rate. One of the key strategies is through monetary policy, which involves managing interest rates and adjusting the money supply in the economy.

To boost inflation, the Fed has lowered interest rates to near-zero levels. This encourages borrowing by businesses and consumers alike, leading to increased spending activity that can stimulate economic growth. The Fed also engages in quantitative easing, wherein it purchases government bonds from banks to inject more cash into circulation.

Another strategy employed by the Fed is forward guidance. This means that they communicate their intentions clearly regarding future monetary policy decisions, creating expectations among investors and potentially influencing market behavior.

The Fed has signaled a willingness to tolerate above-average inflation for some time until it reaches its target level. By allowing temporary overshooting of its goal, it hopes to encourage higher consumer spending and business investments that could lead to long-term economic growth.

These actions demonstrate a commitment on behalf of the Federal Reserve towards achieving its mandate of stable prices while promoting maximum employment levels within our economy.

The risks of the Fed’s actions

While the Federal Reserve’s efforts to boost inflation may seem like a necessary step to stimulate economic growth, there are also inherent risks associated with these actions. One of the biggest dangers is that they could potentially lead to higher interest rates and an increase in borrowing costs for consumers.

Another risk is that if inflation does begin to rise too quickly, it could create a situation where prices spiral out of control, leading to hyperinflation. This can be especially problematic for people on fixed incomes or those who live paycheck-to-paycheck as their purchasing power would decrease significantly.

Furthermore, by keeping interest rates artificially low for extended periods of time, the Fed risks inflating asset bubbles such as stocks and real estate. When these bubbles eventually burst (as they always do), it can cause widespread financial instability and lead to economic recessions or even depressions.

Some critics argue that the Fed’s policies unfairly benefit large corporations and wealthy investors at the expense of average Americans. By pumping trillions of dollars into financial markets through quantitative easing programs, many feel that the central bank has created an uneven playing field which skews towards Wall Street rather than Main Street.

In short, while there are certainly benefits to the Fed’s attempts at boosting inflation levels (such as increased spending and investment), there are also numerous risks involved which must be carefully considered before proceeding with any further monetary policy decisions.

Conclusion

Navigating the risky terrain of the Fed’s inflation fight is no easy task, and it will undoubtedly have consequences for consumers, businesses, and investors alike. While low inflation may seem like a good thing on the surface, it can actually be harmful to economic growth in the long run.

To combat this issue, the Federal Reserve has implemented policies designed to stimulate inflation and boost economic activity. However, these efforts are not without risk. Inflation can quickly spiral out of control if left unchecked, leading to a host of negative consequences such as rising interest rates and decreased consumer purchasing power.

As we move forward into an uncertain future with new economic challenges arising every day, it’s essential that consumers remain informed about the Fed’s actions and their potential impacts on our financial well-being. By staying up-to-date on macroeconomic trends and seeking advice from trusted financial experts when needed, we can all play a role in navigating this complex landscape together.

In conclusion (oops!), while there are risks involved in any effort to combat low inflation or stimulate economic growth, it is ultimately up to us as individuals to stay informed and make smart decisions about our finances moving forward. With careful planning and strategic investments guided by expert advice along the way – we can weather whatever storm comes our way!

Author

Harry Williams

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Finance

Top Trends in Financial Technology for 2024

Published

6 hours ago

September 19, 2024

Gil Villa

Reviewed
By Nora Mike

In 2024, the financial technology (fintech) landscape is evolving rapidly with technological advancements, shifting consumer expectations, and changing regulations. As digital financial services continue to expand, keeping up with the latest trends in fintech becomes increasingly important for businesses, investors, and consumers alike. This article explores the top financial technology trends for 2024, outlining how each trend is expected to impact the industry and reshape the financial ecosystem.

1. The Rise of Embedded Finance

Embedded finance is the integration of financial services into non-financial platforms and applications. Instead of accessing financial services through traditional banks, consumers can now interact with services like lending, insurance, or payments directly within apps they already use, such as retail platforms or ride-hailing services.

In 2024, embedded finance is expected to further blur the lines between financial and non-financial services. This allows companies to offer a seamless customer experience while potentially increasing their revenue streams. For consumers, this means easier and faster access to financial services without the need to interact with a standalone financial provider.

Photo by Karolina Grabowska: https://www.pexels.com/photo/calculator-and-notepad-placed-on-usa-dollars-stack-4386366/

Benefits of Embedded Finance

Convenience: Users can access finance options without leaving their preferred platform.
Customer retention: Businesses can offer value-added services, keeping customers within their ecosystem.
Growth opportunities: Startups and non-financial companies can tap into financial services without the complexity of becoming licensed financial institutions.

2. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Finance

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are transforming the fintech landscape by enhancing automation, decision-making, and customer service. In 2024, AI and ML are expected to play a larger role in financial forecasting, fraud detection, and personalized financial advice.

For example, AI can help financial institutions analyze vast amounts of data to identify potential risks, while ML models can predict consumer behavior and offer tailored financial products. Robo-advisors, which use AI to provide automated investment advice, are also growing in popularity.

Key AI Applications in Financial Technology

Fraud detection: AI can analyze transaction patterns to detect fraudulent activities in real-time.
Personalized services: AI-powered systems can recommend customized financial products based on an individual’s financial behavior.
Automation: Routine tasks such as loan approvals or customer inquiries are automated, improving efficiency and reducing operational costs.

3. Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Expansion

Blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies continue to revolutionize the way transactions are conducted and recorded in the financial industry. In 2024, the adoption of blockchain for secure, decentralized, and transparent transactions is expected to grow, not only for cryptocurrencies but also in areas such as cross-border payments, smart contracts, and tokenization of assets.

While cryptocurrencies have faced regulatory challenges in recent years, blockchain’s underlying technology is being recognized for its potential to enhance efficiency and security in financial systems. Many financial institutions are now exploring how to integrate blockchain into their operations, from clearing and settlement processes to digital identity verification.

Blockchain Applications in Finance

Cross-border payments: Blockchain reduces transaction costs and settlement times for international transfers.
Smart contracts: Automated contracts that execute when predefined conditions are met, increasing efficiency and reducing legal costs.
Tokenization: Real-world assets, such as property or stocks, can be digitized and traded on blockchain platforms, increasing liquidity.

4. Open Banking and API Integration

Open banking refers to the practice of allowing third-party developers to build applications and services around a financial institution, through the use of Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). This enables the secure sharing of financial data with authorized third-party providers, giving consumers more control over their financial information.

In 2024, open banking is expected to continue growing as more countries adopt regulations that promote data sharing between financial institutions. This trend is driving innovation by allowing fintech startups to develop new solutions that improve consumer access to financial services, such as budgeting tools, lending platforms, and payment services.

Advantages of Open Banking

Enhanced competition: Traditional banks face competition from fintech startups offering innovative solutions.
Better customer experience: Consumers can easily manage multiple financial accounts and services from different providers.
Increased financial inclusion: By allowing third-party access to financial data, more people can gain access to credit and financial services.

5. Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) refers to a blockchain-based financial system that operates without intermediaries such as banks or brokers. DeFi allows for peer-to-peer transactions, lending, borrowing, and trading using smart contracts, without the need for traditional financial institutions.

As DeFi continues to evolve, 2024 will likely see the rise of more sophisticated decentralized applications (dApps) that offer services such as lending, borrowing, and derivatives trading on blockchain platforms. DeFi offers the potential for a more open and inclusive financial system, though it also presents regulatory challenges and risks related to security and volatility.

Growth of DeFi in 2024

Increased adoption: More users are expected to engage with DeFi platforms as they offer lower fees and greater access to financial services.
Risk management: DeFi platforms are improving security and risk mitigation, addressing concerns related to hacks and volatility.
New financial products: Innovative financial products, such as decentralized insurance and prediction markets, will emerge, enhancing the DeFi ecosystem.

6. Sustainable and Ethical Fintech

As sustainability becomes a global priority, the financial technology sector is increasingly focusing on sustainable finance and ethical fintech solutions. In 2024, there is a growing demand for green financial products, such as carbon credits and renewable energy investments, as well as platforms that promote socially responsible investing (SRI).

Ethical fintech platforms focus on transparency, inclusivity, and responsible lending, providing consumers with financial services that align with their values. This trend is driven by a new generation of consumers who prioritize environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors in their financial decisions.

Examples of Sustainable Fintech

Green finance: Fintech platforms that help consumers and businesses track their carbon footprint or invest in sustainable projects.
Socially responsible investing: Platforms that allow users to invest in companies with strong ESG credentials.
Inclusive finance: Fintech startups focusing on underserved communities, providing access to credit and banking services in remote areas.

7. Regulatory Technology (RegTech)

With increasing regulation and compliance requirements, financial institutions are turning to Regulatory Technology (RegTech) to streamline processes and ensure compliance. In 2024, RegTech solutions will continue to evolve, helping companies navigate complex regulatory environments more efficiently through automation and data analytics.

RegTech solutions can monitor transactions for compliance, manage reporting requirements, and help companies stay up-to-date with changes in regulations. This reduces the risk of fines and penalties while enhancing the overall transparency of financial operations.

RegTech Innovations in 2024

Automated compliance: AI-driven tools that monitor regulatory changes and ensure ongoing compliance.
Data security: Advanced encryption and secure communication protocols to safeguard financial data.
Real-time monitoring: Continuous monitoring of transactions to detect compliance issues or fraudulent activities.

Comparative Table: Fintech Trends in 2024

Trend	Impact on Industry	Key Benefit	Key Risk
Embedded Finance	Integrates financial services into other sectors	Convenience for users	Potential overreliance on platforms
AI and Machine Learning	Enhances automation and customer service	Efficiency and personalization	Data privacy and ethical concerns
Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies	Improves transparency and security	Faster, cheaper cross-border payments	Regulatory uncertainty
Open Banking and APIs	Promotes data sharing and competition	Greater innovation and access	Data security risks
Decentralized Finance (DeFi)	Creates a decentralized financial system	Lowers transaction costs	Security and volatility issues
Sustainable and Ethical Fintech	Supports green and ethical finance	Aligns financial services with values	Limited regulation
Regulatory Technology (RegTech)	Streamlines compliance processes	Reduces compliance costs	Overdependence on automated systems

Analytical Table: Key Drivers and Barriers to Fintech Trends in 2024

Fintech Trend	Key Drivers	Barriers to Adoption
Embedded Finance	Consumer demand for convenience	Integration complexity with platforms
AI and Machine Learning	Need for automation and better data analytics	High cost of AI technology
Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies	Demand for secure and fast transactions	Uncertain regulatory framework
Open Banking and APIs	Regulatory push for open data	Consumer concerns over data privacy
Decentralized Finance (DeFi)	Desire for financial inclusion and transparency	Security concerns and lack of trust
Sustainable Fintech	Increasing focus on ESG and sustainability	Limited awareness and market maturity
Regulatory Technology (RegTech)	Complex regulatory environment	Lack of expertise in RegTech solutions

Conclusion

As we move into 2024, the financial technology sector will continue to experience rapid growth, driven by innovations in embedded finance, AI, blockchain, open banking, and sustainability. These trends are set to reshape the way financial services are delivered and consumed.

Author

Gil Villa

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Finance

The Benefits and Risks of Emerging Markets Investment

Published

17 hours ago

September 19, 2024

Gil Villa

Reviewed
By Mike Henery

The Benefits and Risks of Investing in Emerging Markets

The United States is the largest economy in the world by far, accounting for more Emerging Markets Investment than a quarter of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022. Yet we make up less than 5% of the global population.

Most of humanity doesn’t enjoy the same standard of living that we do — at least, not yet. Developing countries are full of people working hard to offer their children the kind of life we take for granted in America. And every year, more of them succeed.

In investing parlance, these developing countries are called emerging markets. Investing in emerging markets isn’t just good for the conscience — it can also be a potentially profitable way to diversify your investment portfolio.

Image by : Yandex

What are emerging markets?

Emerging markets are countries with fast-growing economies. They’re also called developing economies or developing countries. Emerging markets are often contrasted with so-called “established markets” or “advanced economies” like the U.S., which tend to be wealthier and more stable, but slower-growing.

Five countries that make up the “BRICS” acronym — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — are some of the most prominent examples of emerging markets, and they’re good examples of why emerging markets are of interest to investors.

The U.S. economy grew about 58% between 2012 and 2022, the latest year for which complete international data is available

The slowest-growing BRICS economy, South Africa, grew about 86% over that decade . The other four all had growth rates above 100%.

Country
GDP growth, 2012-2022
United States
58.39%
Brazil
109.35%
Russia
125.32%
India
175.64%
China
123.69%
South Africa
85.86%

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Data is current as of Apr. 5, 2024.

Index provider MSCI classifies 24 countries as emerging markets

. They’re listed below:

Brazil
Chile
China
Colombia
Czechia
Egypt
Greece
Hungary
India
Indonesia
Kuwait
Malaysia
Mexico
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Turkey
United Arab Emirates

You may notice that certain notable emerging markets, such as Russia, are missing from the list above.

There is no universal standard for noting which countries are emerging markets, and indexers like Emerging Markets Investment MSCI often have geopolitical concerns to work around. Russia, for example, is an emerging market by most definitions. But it’s largely unavailable to Western investors for reasons related to the Russia-Ukraine war, so MSCI stopped tracking it in 2022.

Should I invest in emerging markets?

Investing in emerging markets might sound advanced or out-of-reach for novice investors, but there’s a strong argument for diversifying outside of the U.S. Even simple portfolios, such as those that contain only two or three funds, often include some exposure to international stocks. After all, a stock market crash in the U.S. might not hit international markets as hard.

In theory, faster GDP growth in emerging markets should also translate into faster stock market growth, but this doesn’t always work out in practice. Many of the ETFs listed above have underperformed the S&P 500 over the last five years, for a variety of reasons.

Some emerging markets, such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, have energy-dominated economies that tend Emerging Markets Investment to boom when oil prices are high, and decline when they’re low. Others, such as Poland and Turkey, have unique security risks because they border active war zones.

There’s a common thread between these underperformances: Emerging markets tend to be less stable than established markets. They may be faster-growing, but that fast growth is more vulnerable to interruptions, like shifts in global resource markets or armed conflict.

One way to manage this kind of risk is by investing in several emerging markets at once, through a diversified emerging markets ETF, rather than a country-specific one.

» Interested in ETFs? Check out the best ETFs by one-year performance.

9 top-performing emerging market ETFs as of August 2024

Below is a list of the nine best-performing emerging markets ETFs listed by Finviz, ranked by one-year return.

Ticker
Company
Performance (Year)
GLIN
VanEck India Growth Leaders ETF
41.39%
INCO
Columbia India Consumer ETF
39.90%
EPI
WisdomTree India Earnings Fund
36.88%
DGIN
VanEck Digital India ETF
36.44%
ARGT
Global X MSCI Argentina ETF
34.46%
NFTY
First Trust India Nifty 50 Equal Weight ETF
33.59%
SMIN
iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF
32.77%
FLIN
Franklin FTSE India ETF
30.91%
INDA
iShares MSCI India ETF
30.27%

Source: Finviz. Data is current as of Sept. 3, 2024, and is intended for informational purposes only.

Of course, it’s worth researching an ETF before you buy it, just as you would research stocks. Different Emerging Markets Investment emerging markets ETFs may have different holdings — and if you’re looking for exposure to a specific company in an emerging market, you may want to consider investing in it directly.

» More on index funds: Check out some of the best index funds in terms of long-term performance.

Investing in emerging market stocks

There are a few emerging market stocks that are directly listed on U.S. exchanges — largely bank stocks. For example, HDFC Bank, India’s largest bank, trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker “HDB.”

Some others are available via over-the-counter (OTC) markets — although it’s worth checking an OTC emerging market stock’s trading volume on a website like Yahoo Finance or Google before buying it. Buying a low-volume OTC stock at a good price can be tricky.

Even large conglomerates like South Korea’s Hyundai (HYMTF) are largely overlooked by U.S. investors because they trade OTC. They may only change price a few times per trading day due to a lack of buyers and sellers. That can result in buy or sell orders going through at suboptimal prices, or not going through at all. Limit orders can somewhat mitigate this risk.

A third way to invest in individual emerging market stocks is to open an account with a Emerging Markets Investment broker that allows Americans to trade directly on foreign stock exchanges. However, only a few brokers offer this feature, and those that do may have special requirements for would-be foreign stock traders.

It’s also worth considering that you may be subject to the investment taxes and laws of the host country while investing directly in its stock market.

Neither the author nor editor owned positions in the aforementioned investments at the time of publication.

Frequently asked questions

Are emerging markets the poorest countries?

Emerging markets are often poorer than advanced economies, but on a global scale, they’re upper-middle-income countries, for the most part.

In economics terminology, countries with very low GDPs, such as Afghanistan or the Democratic Republic of the Congo, are referred to as “least-developed countries,” or LDCs.

Although LDCs may have the potential for rapid economic growth in the future, many are largely inaccessible (or extremely hazardous) to international investors today, due to some combination of lack of infrastructure, active conflict, or lack of a functioning legal or banking system.

Is investing in emerging markets the same as forex?

No — investing in emerging markets means investing in stocks from other countries, while forex involves trading the currencies of other countries.

Forex is a complicated and risky market that may not be appropriate for novice investors. But if you feel you’re capable of trying your hand at it, check out our list of the best forex brokers

Author

Gil Villa

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Finance

The Best Personal Finance Apps for 2024

Published

17 hours ago

September 19, 2024

Gil Villa

Reviewed
By Stacy Mike

The Best Personal Finance Apps for 2024

Meta Description Find the best budget apps for 2024. Discover free Personal Finance Apps available on the app store and google play with high store ratings. Learn about the features of these apps and how they can help manage your personal finances.

Understanding Budget Apps

Budget apps are cool tools that help you manage your money. They connect with your financial accounts, track what you’re spending, and show you where your money is going. Some apps even do more than that. They help you plan your finances and make smart decisions about your money

Top Choices for Budget Apps

There are many budget apps out there, but we’ve picked out the best ones for you. We didn’t include our own app in this list because we want to give you an unbiased view. These apps have great features and lots of people love them. Let’s take a closer look at some of them.

YNAB The Hands-On Budgeting App

YNAB is an app that helps you plan your money ahead of time. It uses a method called zero-based budgeting. This means you make a plan for every dollar you earn. As soon as you get paid, you tell YNAB how much you want to spend, save, and pay off debt. It’s a very hands-on app, but it has lots of resources to help you learn how to budget and use the app. The downside is that you need to be committed to keep up with it and it’s a bit pricey.

Benefits

– Connects with your checking and savings accounts, credit cards, and loans.

– Available on mobile, desktop, iPad, Apple Watch, and Alexa.

– Store rating 4.8 on iOS app store and 4.7 on Google Play.

Goodbudget The Envelope Budgeting App

Goodbudget is another great app that helps you plan your finances. It uses the envelope budgeting system, where you set aside money for different spending categories. It doesn’t connect to your bank accounts, so you need to add all the information manually. This could be a bit of work, but it can also help you be more aware of your spending.

Benefits

– Available on your phone and the web.

– Store rating 4.6 on iOS app store and 4.0 on Google Play.

EveryDollar The Simple Budgeting App

EveryDollar is a simple and easy-to-use app. It uses a zero-based budgeting method, but it’s simpler than YNAB. The free version requires you to enter all the information manually, while the premium version allows you to connect your bank account.

Benefits

– Allows you to connect your saving and investing accounts with the premium version.

– Store rating 3.8 on iOS app store and 3.3 on Google Play.

Empower Personal Dashboard The Wealth and Spending Tracker

Empower Personal Dashboard is an app that helps you track your wealth and spending. It’s primarily an investment tool, but it also has features that can help you track your spending.

Benefits

– Connects and monitors checking, savings, and credit card accounts, as well as IRAs, 401(k)s, mortgages, and loans.

– Store rating 4.8 on iOS app store and 4.3 on Google Play.

PocketGuard The Simplified Budgeting App

PocketGuard simplifies budgeting. It connects your bank accounts, credit cards, loans, and investments and Personal Finance Apps shows you how much you have left to spend after setting aside money for necessities, bills, and goals.

Benefits

– Tracks your net worth.

– Store rating 4.6 on iOS app store and 4.1 on Google Play.

Honeydue The Budgeting App for Partners

Honeydue is an app that helps you and your partner manage your finances together. You can both see your financial information in one place and set up monthly limits for different spending categories.

Benefits

– Allows you to sync bank accounts, credit cards, loans, and investments.

– Store rating 4.5 on iOS app store and 3.8 on Google Play.

How We Chose the Best Budget Apps

To create this list, we looked for apps that let users sync financial accounts, plan their finances, see their spending patterns, track bills, and share financial information with partners. We also checked the apps’ ratings on the iOS App Store and Google Play and read reviews from real users. We only included apps that had high ratings and lots of reviews. These ratings were last updated on Aug. 12, 2024.